What latest Ukraine talks reveal about Putin’s state of mind

What does the latest round of diplomacy on Ukraine tell us about the mood and intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin?

First, he is not ready to sign a peace agreement. At least, not now.

And certainly not the deal (or deals) on the table.

Kremlin foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, commented after five hours of talks in Moscow in which Putin, US envoy Steve Witkov, and Donald Trump’s advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner participated, saying: “A settlement formula has not yet been reached.”

That no settlement was reached comes as no real surprise, given the uncompromising statements the Kremlin leader has made in recent days.

In various statements, he condemned the Ukrainian leadership as a “robber junta,” accused European leaders of trying to sabotage peace efforts, and insisted that Russia held the initiative on the battlefield.

On two recent occasions, Russian television showed Putin in military uniform, studying maps of the front line and celebrating military gains, something Ukraine and international observers denied.

Nearly four years after Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and despite Russia’s heavy losses on the battlefield and the damage to the Russian economy, President Putin seems convinced that he is winning this war and that now is not the time to stop.

At least, this is what the West would like to believe: that nothing can now prevent it from achieving its goals.

I’ve said before that, in many ways, Vladimir Putin reminds me of a car with no brakes, no steering wheel, and no reverse gears; A car is driving at full speed on the highway.

Nearly four years after the all-out invasion of Ukraine, “Putin’s mobile phone” still shows no sign of stopping, turning back, or letting up.

He certainly wants his opponents to believe that nothing and no one can force him to change direction: not European leaders, not the Trump administration, not President Zelensky.

But cars need fuel (a constant supply).

To fight a war, countries need money (a constant supply).

Currently, despite international sanctions, the Russian government is still able to finance the “special military operation” – its war on Ukraine. But economic pressures are increasing: oil and gas revenues have declined, and the budget deficit has increased.

Even Putin admits there are problems, referring to the “imbalance” in the economy.

“In many sectors, production output not only failed to increase this year, but actually declined,” Putin said this week. “Are we satisfied with such trends? No.”

The Big Unknown: At what point, if any, might economic concerns begin to impact the Kremlin’s battlefield calculations?