US forecast to be hit hardest of major economies

The economic growth forecast in the United States for this year has been granted the largest rating among the advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to the uncertainty caused by commercial definitions.

Growth is now 1.8 % this year, a decrease from the International Monetary Fund estimated 2.7 % for the United States in January.

The fund predicts that the sharp increase in definitions and uncertainty will lead to a “great slowdown” in global growth.

UK’s expectations were also cut offAs the economy will now grow by 1.1 % this year.

But the International Monetary Fund expected that economic growth in the United Kingdom would be stronger than Germany, France and Italy.

However, inflation in the UK will be the highest in the world’s developed economies, by 3.1 % this year, due to the high bills, including energy and water.

Predictions come at a time when economic policy makers in Washington meet the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings.

The world’s chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, Pierre Olivier Gurinchas, said that the global economy “still holds great scars” of “severe shocks in the past four years.”

“It has now been tested again again,” he added.

President Donald Trump has released a wave of advertisements on definitions this year – the taxes imposed on the goods brought to the United States from other countries.

In an increasingly trade war, the United States put a tariff of up to 145 % on Chinese goods, while China fell 125 % on American products.

The United States also provided a 10 % tax rate on goods from the vast majority of other countries, while stopping much higher rates for dozens of countries for 90 days.

Trump says the definitions will encourage consumers to buy more US -made goods, increase the amount of the tax that has been raised, and leads to huge levels of investment in the country.

However, the International Monetary Fund highlighted the potential negative impact of global trade given that modern supply chains are very intertwined.

Gornshas said the uncertainty about commercial policy was a “major factor” behind growth discounts.

“In the face of increased uncertainty … the reaction of many first companies will be to stop, reduce investment and reduce purchases.”

The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 2.8 % this year, down from its previous 3.3 % expectations, and 3.0 % in 2026.

The International Monetary Fund said that the reduction in the expectation of growth in the United States was due to an increase in uncertainty in politics and commercial tensions and the slowdown in consumer spending. Customs duties are also expected to reach growth in 2026.

The International Monetary Fund said that there was now a 40 % probability of the American stagnation this year, which is 25 % higher in October last year.

Earlier on Tuesday, the banking group International Finance Institute He said he expected a “shallow stagnation” in the United States later this year, with negative growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

China is expected to grow by 4 % this year, a decrease from the previous International Monetary Fund of 4.6 %.

In the United Kingdom, the descending review reflects the impact of definitions, the high government borrowing costs, and the weakest consumer spending as a result of the high bills and energy costs.

However, the US Monetary Fund’s 2025 expectations for the United Kingdom are now close to 1 % growth prediction by the government’s budget office (OBR) last month. The International Monetary Fund expects the United Kingdom to grow 1.4 % next year.

In response to expectations, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said it has shown that the United Kingdom is still the fastest growing in the European G7 growth due to “the reform that will lead to long -term growth in the UK.”

Reeves added that “the world has changed” and that it will be in Washington this week “to defend British interests and provide the issue for free and fair trade.”

However, Mail Strad, conservative shadow advisor, said that the expectations of the International Monetary Fund were “an indomiting indictment for the economic approach to work.”

He said: “The International Monetary Fund has reduced the expectations of the UK growth, which raised serious concerns about the lack of confidence and guidance in light of the work. They also reviewed its forecast for inflation,” he said.

Global economic expectations in the International Monetary Fund also contain the following expectations:

• The euro area growth is reduced to 0.8 % for this year from 1 %. Then it is scheduled to grow by 1.2 % in 2026, with the help of the highest government spending in Germany
• Spain is the only advanced economy that sees its growth expectations for 2025 – to 2.5 % of 2.3 %. This is partly due to the reconstruction activity after floods
• Canada’s growth forecast for this year is reduced to 1.4 % of 2 %, which reflects the induction and “geopolitical tensions” of this year, reflects the induction and “geopolitical tensions”
• Mexico sees the largest level. It is now expected to shrink 0.3 % this year, compared to January 1.4 %.

Expectations are never perfect due to many factors that affect economic growth, and the International Monetary Fund acknowledged that its latest predictions were especially difficult.

The numbers presented are what the International Monetary Fund calls its “reference expectations” based on the situation on April 4, which was two days after Trump’s announcement of the widely ranked tariff.

“There are many possible tracks, which reflects the ability to predict the future commercial policy and the diverse influence of definitions across different countries.”

The International Monetary Fund also looked at the situation after the United States temporarily stopped many customs tariffs while raising China sharply.

Mr. Gorkas said that the cessation of the customs tariff did not change “financially” the global view of its reference expectations, because the generally effective tariff for the United States and China is still high and continues to be uncertain on politics.