How Trump and trade wars pushed Russia and Ukraine into the cold

At higher times – and with the commercial wars that dominate the news agenda – it is easy to forget that Russia and Ukraine soldiers continue to struggle for every inch of the front lines land in Ukraine.

The conflict in Gaza, and the constant economic uncertainty in the United States and Europe and the changing geopolitical landscape with strengthening, opposition, “power axes” are also at the forefront of the minds of global policy makers, and pushing more than three and a half years of war in Ukraine below the agenda.

It seems that both Russia and Ukraine are excluded in the cold, even with this week’s talks in Istanbul, which includes negotiating teams on both sides, barely mentioned in the media. With things remains, there is unstable air when it comes to war and peace prospects.

Trump seemed to have lost his patience when he stated on July 14 that Ukraine could receive more US weapons-as long as NATO allies paid them- Russia has given a final date for 50 days to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine. He said that if this does not happen, Russia will face “very severe” sanctions and “secondary” definitions of up to 100 %.

They can hit Russia strongly, as well as its remaining commercial partners, including India and China, Those who buy Russian oil and gasAmong the other goods.

As matters stand, Russia has until September 2 to show that it is serious about the ceasefire and peace – in which little progress has been made, Despite some agreements on the bodies of prisoners.

Analysts doubt that the threat of more sanctions will move Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table in good faith, not to mention speaking to Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelinski.

There is an extension between Trump’s demand for a peace agreement and any other sanctions, said Meccola Bielizkov, a research colleague at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Ukraine.

“The Kremlin is generally shouting on the fact that the United States under Trump is unable to a systematic policy to support Ukraine and pressure Russia,” Pelzekov told NBC News earlier in July.

He pointed out that “serious secondary sanctions require in preparation for quarrels with China and India, which buy raw materials from Russia.”

He added, “Likewise, when it comes to weapons, the speed and size of supplies here and now. Therefore, there are many known unknown. I believe that Russia may think that the United States will not dare to impose secondary sanctions on commercial partners in Russia.”

Ukraine, at the mercy of the United States and European when it comes to arms supplies, has shown more to negotiate in recent months, along with Trump, to a ceasefire with the unanswered Russia.

He also showed a willingness to settle even when it comes to waiving the Ukrainian lands occupied by Russian to Moscow if it is given something of the country’s “sacred cup”: NATO membership.

But there was no minimal sign that Russia, which is achieving small but gradual gains in the battlefield because of its huge strength of the generated workforce and intense drone warfare, will be ready to accept the security guarantees that have been destroyed by Western Ukraine, in any way.

The protests erupted in Kiev last week amid a violent reaction against government moves to reduce the independence of two anti -corruptions. The highest politicians in the European Union expressed his panic when the step Politico portHe said that he showed the lack of commitment to follow -up of European democratic values. The fight against what was settlement in Ukraine was seen as a prior condition for the membership of the European Union, which applies Kiev.

The government amendment in mid -July closed the accusations that Zelinski was focusing on power between loyalists, which could also ignite concerns between Ukraine supporters and assistants.

Ukraine intervened “a decisive stage of internal monotheism amid the increasing outer uncertainty,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, an older colleague at the Carnegie Carnegie Eurasia and founder of Political Analysis Company, R. Politik.

“The latest developments in the battlefield coincide with a new American position: Donald Trump chose a tactical delay in decisive participation, as it fell operating while transferring financial and political responsibilities to Europe, “she said in e -mail comments this week.

“Meanwhile, Kiev is used to re -calibration internally. The recent government amendment … emphasizes the intention of the Zelinski administration is to enhance political control and maintain cohesion in the face of the mating of escalating, and the institutional belts of employment,” she added.

Despite the increase in the Western lock in relation to the local path of Ukraine, Stanovaya pointed out that “international support has become the most treated, primarily directed towards maintaining the confrontation line instead of promoting democratic reform.”