BBC correspondents on the wins and potential losses

US President Donald Trump arrives in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy, which includes a long-awaited meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

Trade will be high on the agenda between the two countries, an area where tensions between the world’s two largest economies are rising again.

Trump arrives in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur, where the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit begins on Sunday. He will then visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House says he will meet Xi.

So what gains do Trump and other leaders hope to achieve, and what are the pitfalls?

Our reporters break down what you should know about next week.

By Anthony Zurcher, North America Correspondent

Forging new trade deals that provide opportunities for US companies while keeping tariff revenue flowing to the US Treasury is sure to be a major focus of Trump’s Asia tour.

While there are many players in the global trade dance, the key to Trump’s success or failure is China. Trump’s scheduled meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit – his first since 2019 – could determine the course of relations between the United States and China for the rest of Trump’s second term in office.

As the US President admitted, strict tariffs on Chinese imports are unsustainable. Although he did not say so explicitly, escalating the economic war with America’s largest trading partner would have devastating consequences – for the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

This reality confirms the sharp decline witnessed by the major US stock indices every time China and the United States face an impasse.

Trump will certainly be happy when he returns to America next week if he can finalize an agreement with South Korea and secure new Japanese investments in American manufacturing.

But his top priority is certainly to convince Xi to resume purchasing US agricultural exports, ease recent restrictions on foreign access to Chinese rare earths, give US companies greater access to the Chinese market and avoid an all-out trade war.

For Trump, as the saying goes, that’s the whole game.

By Laura Baker, China correspondent

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump on October 30 in South Korea, he wants to be the toughest negotiator.

That’s why he was exploiting China’s stranglehold on rare earths, metals without which semiconductors, weapons systems, cars, or even smartphones couldn’t be made. It’s a US weakness, and China is exploiting it – just as it is hurting American farmers, and Trump’s rural vote base, by not buying soybeans.

Xi has also learned lessons from Trump 1.0, and this time Beijing appears willing to take the pain of tariffs. On the one hand, the United States, which once received a fifth of Chinese exports, is no longer a very important market.

Xi still has to balance the economic battle with the United States, and his struggle with internal challenges. Washington knows the problems Xi faces: high youth unemployment, the real estate crisis, mounting local government debt, and residents’ unwillingness to spend.

Analysts believe China may offer to make a deal if Trump agrees to start exporting advanced AI chips or back away from further military support for Taiwan.

But getting there won’t be easy. One big difference is that it often looks as if Trump is willing to roll the dice and gamble – but Xi Jinping is playing a much longer game.

So the question may be: Can Trump wait out the crisis?

By Jonathan Head, Southeast Asia Correspondent

The US President appears to be interested in only one thing during his visit to Malaysia: playing a starring role in a ceremony organized especially for him, where Thailand and Cambodia are scheduled to sign some kind of peace agreement.

Disagreements between the two countries over their borders remain unresolved, but under pressure to reach something, they have made progress in agreeing to demilitarize the border.

Neither of them can disappoint President Trump. Back in July, when they were still bombing each other, his threat to end tariff talks forced an immediate ceasefire.

Other ASEAN member states hope that Trump’s mere presence, even briefly, will lead to the normalization of relations with the United States.

They have had a turbulent year as their export-dependent economies were severely shaken by his tariff war. Exports from the region to the United States have doubled since Trump’s last visit to the ASEAN summit in 2017.

Once Trump is gone, other leaders can settle down to business as usual – quiet, incremental diplomacy that advances their lumbering progress toward integration.

Also on the agenda is a conflict that doesn’t get Trump’s attention — the civil war in Myanmar, which has haunted every ASEAN grouping since it was sparked by a brutal coup in 2021.

By Surangana Tiwari, Asia business correspondent

Asia’s industrial powers, which account for a large portion of global production, will be looking for a respite from Trump’s tariffs.

Some have agreed to deals, while others are still stuck in talks – but none have signed an agreement.

So ink on paper, or at least promising conversations, would be welcome.

Take China for example. The meeting between Trump and Xi signals progress, but the two leaders have a lot to resolve, from tariffs and export controls, to the source of it all: the rivalry between the world’s two largest economies as they vie for supremacy in artificial intelligence and advanced technology.

Any easing of these tensions would provide relief to other countries in the region that are stuck in the middle. Southeast Asia may be the most locked-in, deeply woven into US supply chains in electronics, for example, but highly dependent on Chinese demand.

Exports to the United States have doubled over the past decade, but tariffs ranging from 10% to 40% would hit manufacturers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.

It could also hurt US chipmakers such as Micron Technology, which operates factories in Malaysia. The country exported about $10 billion worth of semiconductors to the United States last year, nearly a fifth of total U.S. chip imports.

Rich economies such as Japan and South Korea face a different dilemma.

Although they are close allies of the United States, they will face an unpredictable time – and will want to stabilize the terms of tariffs and investments. Automakers in both countries, which consider the United States a major market, are struggling to overcome the chaos.

Written by Shaima Khalil, Japan correspondent

Trump described new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as a woman of great “strength and wisdom.”

This week, its ability to establish a stable working relationship with him will be an early test of its leadership – and Japan’s place in a changing world order.

In her first speech in Parliament, she pledged to raise Japan’s defense budget, signaling her intention to shoulder more of the security burden with Washington.

Trump spoke about this before and is expected to pressure Tokyo to contribute more to the deployment of American forces, as Japan hosts the largest number of American forces abroad, about 53,000 soldiers.

The two sides also want to finalize a tariff agreement negotiated by her predecessor.

It would be particularly beneficial for Japan’s auto giants – Toyota, Honda and Nissan – to reduce tariffs on US imports of Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15%, which could make them more competitive against Chinese rivals.

By keeping Ryusei Akazawa as chief tariff negotiator, Takaichi is betting on continuity.

In return, Japan pledged to invest $550 billion in the United States to strengthen pharmaceutical and semiconductor supply chains.

Trump also said Japan would increase purchases of US agricultural products, including rice, a move welcomed in Washington but worrying for Japanese farmers.

Takaichi’s ties to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had a close relationship with Trump, could also work to her advantage.

Abe is known to have used golf outings at Mar-a-Lago to gain Trump’s trust, a type of personal diplomacy that Takaishi may seek to emulate.

By Jake Kwon, Seoul correspondent

For South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, the pressing issue is Trump’s tariffs.

But that thunder was briefly stolen by rampant speculation that Trump might visit the border to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Back in August, Lee devoted most of his time in the Oval Office to fawning over Trump and calling him a “peacemaker.” Trump responded enthusiastically to the prospect of sitting down with Kim, whom he has not seen since 2019. Kim said last month that he still remembers Trump “fondly.”

Analysts believe that Kim hopes to legitimize his nuclear weapons program through another summit with the US president. There is no indication that a meeting is being prepared.

Either way, Lee has a trade deal to negotiate. Talks to reduce US tariffs on South Korean exports from 25% to 15% have stalled, despite multiple trips by officials from Seoul to Washington. The sticking point is Trump’s insistence that Seoul invest $350 billion upfront in the U.S. — nearly a fifth of South Korea’s economy. Such a huge investment could create a financial crisis, Seoul fears.

But in recent days, Korean officials have expressed hope and reported tangible progress. We will hope to have a signed agreement by the end of Wednesday’s summit between Trump and Lee.